Space Ex-SpaceX

Tech stocks drag on the market. Stocks slid around the world during the first part of the week on investor concerns around AI and tech valuations. Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon were down 0–5% on Monday and chip names (Nvidia, Micron, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Sandisk) were down in the single-digits to low-teens on Tuesday. Micron and Qualcomm both were some bright spots on Thursday owing to positive earnings/outlooks, but were counteracted by a decline in Apple shares after it announced price increases and were not enough to salvage the week. By Thursday’s close, the S&P was down 2% and the Nasdaq was down 4%. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Nasdaq Price® data, is up ~40% YTD versus the S&P 500/Nasdaq up ~7%/~9%.(Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal; NPM)

A fortune has been written about the SpaceX IPO, both before and after it priced. This week, we offer a palate cleanser by looking at space companies that aren’t SpaceX. SpaceX has shone a bright light on the sector and its IPO may generate significant returns for early investors over the next several months as lockups expire. This, in turn, may create interest in the next crop of private companies who are, or could become, notable players in the space economy.

The space economy has matured from a science project to a commercial industry in many areas such as communications and earth observation. SpaceX still dominates in launch and communications (Starlink) and many of the companies nipping at its heels or supplying the industry are already public (Rocket Lab, Firefly Aerospace, York Space, AST Space Mobile and the likes of Amazon in communications). Still, there are many fast-growing private space companies working in new areas such as orbital compute or optical terminals and others that are growing quickly in areas such as in-space mobility and satellite bus manufacturing.

As is the case with any industry, not all of these companies will be winners, and we expect there to be M&A over the next few years as the industry consolidates to compete with the likes of SpaceX (Rocket Lab, York, MDA Space and others have already been acquisitive). Below, we break down the key areas we see in the space economy at the moment and the key players competing in them. A few things to note:

• We include public comps and their market caps so that readers have an idea of the broader universe in each segment, though we note that this list is not exhaustive.
• Some companies have presences in multiple markets: For example, Firefly has a launch business and a lunar business but we show it under launch; Redwire manufactures components and also has an in-space manufacturing business.
• Many companies are quickly developing defense capabilities alongside their commercial capabilities given the vast funding available for space-based defense projects. We do not break down a defense subsegment of space for this reason, but investors should be aware that defense is a growing focus for space companies and more of them are framing themselves as dual-use.

Launch

Much has been said about SpaceX’s dominant position in launch. It dwarfs all other global competitors and has an effective monopoly on getting payloads to space (CNBC). This creates a risk of overreliance for governments and companies who want to access space for data collection, defense, communications constellations and, at some point in the future, data centers. Firefly and Rocket Lab are two public companies with launch capabilities, though Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket (~300kg payload) and Firefly’s Alpha rocket (~1,000kg payload) carry significantly smaller payloads than SpaceX’s Falcon 9 (~23,000kg payload) and Starship (~150,000kg payload). They therefore have higher unit costs per kg of payload at $15,000+/kg. Rocket Lab’s Neutron is expected to carry a ~13,000kg payload with a cost of <$5,000/kg, with first flight expected in 4Q2026. On the private side, Blue Origin’s New Glenn has had 2 successful launches, though it had a failure in May 2026. New Glenn carries the largest non-SpaceX payload of ~45,000kg with a unit cost of <$2,000/kg. Stoke Space is working on its ~3,000kg reusable Nova rocket with a per-kg cost that it claims will rival Starship’s at <$1,000/kg. Astra Space is developing its expendable Rocket 4 that it expects to carry a payload up to 1,000kg at ~$8,000/kg. The launch market does not feel very competitive at the moment, but there are many companies aiming to take share from SpaceX.

Earth Observation (EO)

These companies collect image or radio frequency data to observe earth from space. EO has evolved from a niche government capability into one of the most commercially dynamic segments of the space economy, driven by falling data costs, higher-resolution constellations, and AI analytics that help convert raw imagery into actionable intelligence. EO has moved toward Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) from optical imaging because it is all-weather and is effective day and night. EO companies serve commercial markets, such as hedge funds who are tracking oil shipments and inventories, and is becoming increasingly important as countries seek “geospatial sovereignty” for defense and security purposes.

Satellite buses and other manufacturing

The proliferation of Low Earth Orbit constellations has pushed satellite production from bespoke, years-long programs to high-volume, standardized manufacturing. Companies like Apex, York Space and K2 are explicitly modeled on automotive-style production lines with the goal of delivering satellite buses in months rather than years (the satellite bus is the platform that gets the payload to space, and it includes the power subsystem, propulsion, altitude and orbit control and thermal control; the payload is what performs the actual task of the satellite, such as communications or earth observation). Several players in this space, including MDA, Redwire, Karman and York have made acquisitions to integrate vertically or horizontally into defense.

Communications/Direct-to-Device

Starlink’s significant role in SpaceX’s revenue/EBITDA/cash flows as well as Amazon’s announced acquisition of Globalstar this spring have generated a lot of focus on the Direct-to-Device market (D2D). D2D is a rapidly commercializing effort to use satellites rather than cell towers to connect smartphones and other mobile devices. There are not many smaller, private companies in this space because the capital and spectrum required to launch and operate large communications constellations lend themselves to major tech companies (i.e., Amazon and Apple, which has a long-term service agreement with Globalstar) and spectrum incumbents such as Echostar (which has sold spectrum to SpaceX), Globalstar, and Iridium. The largest independent space company outside of SpaceX involved in D2D is AST Space Mobile. Below, we also list companies that are working on ground layer communications infrastructure such as Aalyria, Observable Space and Northwood.

Space logistics and maneuverability

Being able to move satellites and other objects around space has become increasingly important given (1) an increasingly crowded Low Earth Orbit (LEO), (2) the popularity of launch ride shares, which often require satellites to be repositioned once they are dropped off at the “bus station” in space, and (3) a sharper focus on space-based defense capabilities, which require the ability to dogfight and maneuver around enemy assets. Several space companies focus on logistics, propulsion and maneuverability, as well as debris removal from LEO.

Orbital compute

The rapid growth of AI has strained terrestrial data center capacity — power availability, cooling, land, and permitting are all increasingly bottlenecked. A growing cohort of companies is pursuing moving compute to orbit, where solar power is abundant, continuous, and unmetered, and where cooling can be handled by radiating heat into the cold of space. The economics are unproven at scale and depend critically on Starship dramatically reducing launch costs, but the momentum in early 2026 has been striking, with multiple well-funded entrants and SpaceX itself filing for up to one million data center satellites with the FCC. Google’s Project Suncatcher, backed by Google’s balance sheet, is another credible long-term entrant.

Lunar and Space Station services

NASA is still running lunar missions via the Artemis program with its first lunar landing still expected in 2028, and several companies are building lunar landers to be part of this program. Also, with the International Space Station set to be decommissioned in 2030, several private companies are focused on space station services. The goal of reaching Mars has faded into the background, with even SpaceX now focusing on lunar missions first.

In-space manufacturing

Many of the space station-focused companies include in-space manufacturing as core use cases for their commercial space stations (microgravity is an advantageous environment in which to manufacture products like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals). Varda Space focuses specifically on in-space manufacturing.

In sum, there have been many new entrants to the space economy over the last few years, and many of these companies are more mature and commercial than they were during the space venture boom of 2021/2022. We expect interest in these companies to grow as the space economy matures and the defense angle of space technology becomes more important.

Based on our proprietary Nasdaq Price® data using weighted averages for each sector, the top performing sectors YTD taking into account the top 100 largest names are AI and Machine Learning (80%), Industrials (+54%) and Enterprise Software (+28%). Anthropic’s size and performance has driven AI and Machine learning, helped by Cerebras and Reflection (though at $20–30 billion they are a fraction of the size). SpaceX’s pre-IPO trading has driven Industrials to a strong YTD performance. Clickhouse’s strong performance has driven Enterprise Software, aided by Databricks, whose valuation dominates the sector and is up ~20% YTD.

Based on our proprietary Nasdaq Price® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2026 have been:

1. 01
   SpaceX announced that it would lease compute from its Colossus 2 data center to Reflection AI for $150 million per month. The Information · 6/23
2. 02
   SK Hynix, the South Korean memory chipmaker, filed for a Nasdaq listing that could raise over $29 billion. Axios · 6/24
3. 03
   Abu Dhabi-backed MGX has raised nearly $50 billion for AI. Bloomberg · 6/24
4. 04
   OpenAI and Broadcom unveiled Jalapeno, OpenAI’s first custom inference chip. The Information · 6/25
5. 05
   Meta is reportedly building a prediction markets app to compete with Polymarket and Kalshi. New York Times · 6/23
6. 06
   President Trump signed two executive orders aimed at speeding up the development of advanced quantum computers and mitigating their security threats. New York Times · 6/22
7. 07
   SpaceX raised $25 billion selling investment grade bonds. Bloomberg · 6/25
8. 08
   Shield AI completed its acquisition of simulation and sensor modeling company Aechelon Technology. Tectonic · 6/23