Halftime – First-Half 2026 Review

Markets posted modest gains this week. The S&P 500 rose +0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite +1.4%, led by strength in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. Investor sentiment improved as easing concerns over U.S.–Iran tensions helped drive a rebound in equities, while falling Treasury yields provided additional support for growth stocks. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil declined roughly 2% on Thursday to $72/bbl, as fears of a prolonged energy supply disruption eased. Our NPM Private Market Tracker, which shows the average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal NPM Price data, is +48% YTD vs. the S&P 500/Nasdaq 100 +10%/+18%. (Bloomberg; NPM)

Private Market Trading Update Post 1H2026

The private secondary market performed strongly in 1H26, continuing the momentum that began in 2025, during which our private market index was +55% vs. +18%/+21% for the S&P 500/Nasdaq 100. By our measures, private markets again handily outperformed public markets in the first half of the year. Our NPM Private Market Tracker, which is based on our proprietary NPM price data, was +47% in 1H26 vs. the S&P 500/Nasdaq 100 at +9%/+20%. As the chart below shows, the outperformance of private markets was accelerated by the war with Iran, which began 2/28, and led to a meaningful public market pullback. (Bloomberg; NPM)

We want to highlight three observations about performance during the first half of 2026:

1. 01We would note that recent performance is almost a complete mirror image of performance in the 2023/24 timeframe. Over those two years, private markets underperformed the S&P 500 by a massive 61%. In 2024, for example, our NPM Private Market Tracker returned just +14% vs. the S&P 500/Nasdaq 100 at +24%/+29%. (NPM; Bloomberg)
2. 02Demand for cap table access at leading private companies has intensified considerably. The market has become increasingly polarized, with a handful of elite AI and technology infrastructure companies commanding significant valuation premiums, while many traditional software, fintech, and consumer technology companies continue to trade below their previous high water marks. In 1H26 the top 50 names in our market by enterprise value were +47%, but the top 100 names average was +28%, suggesting just a +5% average return for names 51–100.
3. 03The IPO market has continued its gradual reopening in 2026, although activity remains highly selective. Although the IPO window has improved materially compared with conditions prevailing in 2022–25, it remains far from the broad-based issuance environment experienced during 2021. Consequently, many of the largest venture backed companies continue to rely on secondary transactions to satisfy employee liquidity needs while waiting for more favorable IPO market conditions.

Performance by Sector During 1H26

The chart below shows performance by industry sector within private markets for 1H26. Consumer, driven by Whoop (+138%) and Oura (+68%), was the biggest gainer at +53%, but we note that this sector represents only 4 companies in our top 100 by EV. AI, led by Anthropic (+164%), was second at +44%, followed by Healthcare (Neuralink +188%) at +41%. Industrials, which includes both Space (SpaceX +56%) and Defense (Saronic +84%), rounds out the top 4 at +35%.

Strong returns in private markets were largely driven by a small number of names that did capital raises at dramatically higher valuations. Among the 50 largest names in our market the best performers in 1H26 were Clickhouse (+210%), BaseTen Labs (+191%), Cerebras (+188%), Neuralink (+188%), Bolt Financial (+180%) and Anthropic (+164%).

A Quick Note on the Public Markets

While our focus is private markets, we do not entirely cast a blind eye to what is occurring in public equities. Historically we have observed public markets leading private, making public equities a meaningful leading indicator. In public markets the S&P 500 was +8% during 1H26, extending one of the longest bull markets in modern history. Public equities navigated persistent inflation, new Federal Reserve leadership, geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, continued uncertainty surrounding trade policy, and periodic concerns regarding whether AI-related capital expenditures had become excessive. Despite these headwinds, equity markets demonstrated remarkable resilience as corporate earnings continued exceeding expectations and economic activity remained stronger than consensus anticipated entering the year. From a valuation standpoint, the S&P 500 is currently trading at a 27.7x P/E and 3.6x P/Sales, both near the top end of the 5 year trailing range and meaningfully above the averages of 24x/2.8x. (Bloomberg)