Founders Get Selective

Inflation and bond market jitters wreck the week. The S&P and Nasdaq were basically flat on the week, with a strong performance in the first couple of days (the S&P hit a new all-time high on Tuesday) offset by geopolitical and chip-related concerns towards the end of the week. Dell, HP, Marvell Technologies and Palo Alto Networks were strong performers, but Broadcom and Crowdstrike plunged Thursday after disappointing guidance and brought some others down with them. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Nasdaq Price® data, is up ~38% YTD versus the S&P 500/Nasdaq up ~11%/~15%. (Bloomberg; NPM)

Looking at aggregated and anonymized data from NPM’s tender platform, we can track participation rates among founders, investors and employees. This week we highlight an interesting data set for 1Q regarding founder participation in tender offers. Founder participation rates have tended to be well above 50%, and understandably so, as they look to monetize years of sweat equity. However, in 1Q26 the average founder participation rate was down to ~67% versus closer to 80% or above for the prior few quarters.

We see a couple of reasons why this might have been the case:

1. 01
   Recurring liquidity programs. Liquidity programs have become more frequent in recent years, which means that founders may have monetized shares in a previous tender and therefore may have not seen an immediate need to do so in 1Q26. They may also expect another opportunity to monetize at the next tender, taking away some urgency to participate meaningfully every time.
2. 02
   Bullishness. Market trends are strong in sectors from defense to all things AI. Founders may be bullish on their companies’ outlooks as well as prospects for another raise at a higher valuation. They may therefore be willing to sit on the sidelines once in a while, especially if additional raises could presage additional tenders.

The trend for investors is less clear, though the trajectory often appears to follow those of founders even though the absolute participation rates for investors are lower. One reason for this may be because investors, especially major ones, are likely in close dialogue with founders and possibly have board seats or observer seats and may end up having similar views on the outlook for the company and its ability to raise primary/secondary capital. Some investors may have also been involved in a company for a similarly long time to a founder, and may therefore want to monetize at a similar time.

The key takeaway for us is that the more frequent corporate liquidity programs become, the more selective founders, investors and employees may become regarding whether, and to what degree, they participate. A lot of the outcome will likely depend on the outlook for a particular company’s revenue trajectory and valuation, but increasing comfort that there will be future opportunities to monetize absent an IPO could affect participation rates going forward.

Based on our proprietary Nasdaq Price® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2026 have been:

Based on our proprietary Nasdaq Price® data using weighted averages for each sector, the top performing sectors YTD are AI and Machine Learning (69%), Consumer (+69%) and Healthcare (+50%). Anthropic’s recent funding round (it just closed a $65 billion Series H at a $965 billion valuation) catapulted returns in AI and Machine learning because it was over 2x the size and valuation of the prior round. Anthropic’s absolute valuation is now so significant that this raise took YTD sector returns from closer to 30% previously. Whoop is still driving the Consumer performance, with OpenEvidence and Neuralink driving Healthcare.

1. 01
   Stripe, Visa, Mastercard and Coinbase are planning to form a consortium to issue a new stablecoin. The Information · 6/4
2. 02
   SpaceX gave details on its compute rental agreement with Anthropic, noting that it’s a 180-day lease commitment can then be cancelled by either party within 90 days’ notice until it ends in May, 2029. The Information · 6/2
3. 03
   President Trump signed an executive order that calls for giving the US government voluntary access to AI models for a 30-day review period. Bloomberg · 6/2
4. 04
   Nvidia unveiled a new chip for PCs, a major step into a market long led by Intel; meanwhile, intel said it plans to ship a new AI chip by the end of this year. The Information · 6/2
5. 05
   Strategy sold $2.5 million of Bitcoin, a symbolic break and its first sale since 2022. Bloomberg · 6/1
6. 06
   Google said that it would raise a total of $80 billion in equity as part of its plan to fund investments in AI. It raised $45 billion in its first trance this week (its initial goal was $40 billion but the deal was oversubscribed), including $10 billion from Berkshire Hathaway. StrictlyVC · 6/3
7. 07
   Florida’s attorney General sued OpenAI for negligence, liability, and other state law violations related to safety concerns. Wall Street Journal · 6/1