The SP500, Nasdaq100, DJII and Russell 2000 all hit all-time highs this week which, has only occurred on 25 other days this century. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +12/+14%. In our view, positive performance was driven by continued optimism about the prospects for rate cuts, beginning with the next Fed meeting on 9/17, despite inflation data on 9/11 that was “hotter” than expected. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now +33% YTD, slightly lower on the week. (Source: NPM; Bloomberg)
SPVs: An increasingly important part of private markets. Industry estimates project that private markets will grow from $13 trillion AUM today to more than $20 trillion by 2030. SPVs help provide liquidity in this growing market by allowing retail investors to pool capital to meet minimum investment requirements and gain access to private investments. In most cases, an SPV will own shares in a company and investors, as LPs, will have exposure by owning shares in the SPV. (Source: Blackrock, WSJ)
While structures are likely to evolve over time, the number and size of deals is growing. Over the last two years, the number of secondary SPVs grew by 545% and total capital raised surged by 1,000%. The average SPVs is also growing in size. Carta notes that in 2023, the median size of SPVs larger than $10m+ on its platform was almost $22.6 million, up from a median $15.2 million in 2019. In 2025 alone, Nasdaq Private Market has originated 13 SPV deals with ~$115 million AUM. (Source: Pitchbook, Carta, NPM)
While we view SPVs as an increasingly necessary part of providing liquidity in this market, however, there are still some challenges. For instance, companies have differing views on SPVs, meaning some have taken steips to prevent SPV creation of their shares. Others, however, view retail investors as an important constituency and appreciate the role that SPVs can play in aggregating them while keeping capital structures relatively simplified.
BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES
Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been Anthropic (+248% share price performance), Payward (aka Kraken; +165%), Anduril (+165%) and x.AI (+163%). (Source: NPM)
This commentary is produced by the Capital Markets desk of NPM Securities, LLC (“NPMS”), a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a member of FINRA and SIPC, and is solely for internal use by you. Any unauthorized distribution to any other external party is prohibited. This commentary is provided for general informational purposes only, including the statistical information provided herein, and should not be considered a recommendation or personalized investment advice. The material is based in part on information from third-party sources that we consider reliable, but which have not been independently verified by us and for this reason, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document and the income from such investments may fluctuate, and investors may realize losses on these investments, including a loss of principal. The information should not be taken as tax, investment, legal or other advice, nor should it to be relied upon in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing related to the information in this communication should be construed as a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future performance or returns. Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors. An investment in private company securities is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. You must be prepared to withstand a total loss of your investment. Private company securities are also highly illiquid and the is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities. Each investment also carries its own specific risks and investors should conduct their own, independent due diligence regarding the investment, including obtaining additional information about the company, opinions, financial projections and legal or investment advice. Accordingly, investing in private company securities is appropriate only for those investors who can tolerate a high degree of risk and do not require a liquid investment. Please note these securities are being resold pursuant to an exemption from registration and may not be resold by means of any form of general solicitation or any advertising. Registered representatives of NPMS do not (i) advise on the merits or prudence of a particular investment or transaction, or (ii) assist in the determination of fair market value of any security. Conflicts of interest may arise relating to our business dealings with some or all of the companies referenced herein, including potential advisory, transactional and other conflicts of interests. Any prices may not include transactional fees or fees charged by NPMS. Nasdaq Private Market, LLC is not (i) a registered exchange under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934; (ii) a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940; or (iii) a financial or tax planner, and does not offer legal, financial, investment, or tax advice. Nasdaq Private Market is operationally independent and distinct from the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC.
For further full disclosures please visit the NPM website at www.nasdaqprivatemarket.com and our Form CRS.
