Public markets trended up slightly over the past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 +1%/+1%. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +8%/+11%. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now +20% YTD, significantly outperforming public markets.
Continuation funds—GP-led recapitalizations that transfer select assets from mature funds into new vehicles—have surged into the mainstream. A continuation fund is a vehicle designed to extend a PE firm’s ownership of one or more portfolio investments beyond the life of the original fund. The continuation fund allows initial investors to realize returns while allowing the GP to retain exposure to the assets.
In 2024, GP-led secondaries accounted for ~$72bn —almost half of the $152bn global secondary market—marking a 50% y/y acceleration (WSJ). In the first half of 2025 alone, sponsors exited nearly $41bn through continuation deals, representing 19% of PE exits—a 60% y/y increase (FT). With the majority of top private equity firms now deploying these vehicles and money managers like Neuberger Berman raising multi-billion dedicated funds (WSJ), continuation funds have become a viable exit strategy in response to difficult IPO and M&A markets.
The implications for secondary share marketplaces like our SecondMarket could be significant. As continuation funds offer LP liquidity through structured GP-led deals, buyers may purchase stakes directly from sponsors. A continued shift toward GP-led recapitalizations may push trading activity into more structured vehicles (FT).
Looking forward, continuation funds could transform the secondary landscape into a two-tiered model: larger, GP-managed continuation deals where LPs roll or new investors buy directly via structured transactions, and a more public-like marketplace for assets still trading via open platforms. At NPM we are responding to the continuation fund trend by continuing to offer transparency enhancements on our SecondMarket platform, as well as by participating in secondary syndication partnerships.
BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES
Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been x.AI (+152% estimated share price performance), OpenAI (+118%) and Anduril Industries (+117%).
RECENT EVENTS
- Tesla shares are down 8% post missing earnings and warning of “difficult” quarters ahead on Wednesday. (7/23; Bloomberg)
- Alphabet beat earnings by 7% on strong cloud and search results. (7/23; Bloomberg)
NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES
- Anthropic is considering raising capital at a $100bn valuation. (7/17; Bloomberg)
- Coding startup Lovable has raised $200mm at a $1.8bn valuation. (7/17; StrictlyVC)
NOTABLE EXITS
- Design software company Figma is seeking to raise ~$1bn through an IPO at a $16bn valuation. (7/24; Bloomberg)
- Digital asset trading firm Bullish, backed by Peter Thiel, has filed to go public (7/23; StrictlyVC)
- Heartflow, a company that generates 3D heart models, filed to go public. (7/17; Reuters)
This commentary is produced by the Capital Markets desk of NPM Securities, LLC (“NPMS”), a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a member of FINRA and SIPC, and is solely for internal use by you. Any unauthorized distribution to any other external party is prohibited. This commentary is provided for general informational purposes only, including the statistical information provided herein, and should not be considered a recommendation or personalized investment advice. The material is based in part on information from third-party sources that we consider reliable, but which have not been independently verified by us and for this reason, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document and the income from such investments may fluctuate, and investors may realize losses on these investments, including a loss of principal. The information should not be taken as tax, investment, legal or other advice, nor should it to be relied upon in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing related to the information in this communication should be construed as a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future performance or returns. Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors. An investment in private company securities is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. You must be prepared to withstand a total loss of your investment. Private company securities are also highly illiquid and the is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities. Each investment also carries its own specific risks and investors should conduct their own, independent due diligence regarding the investment, including obtaining additional information about the company, opinions, financial projections and legal or investment advice. Accordingly, investing in private company securities is appropriate only for those investors who can tolerate a high degree of risk and do not require a liquid investment. Please note these securities are being resold pursuant to an exemption from registration and may not be resold by means of any form of general solicitation or any advertising. Registered representatives of NPMS do not (i) advise on the merits or prudence of a particular investment or transaction, or (ii) assist in the determination of fair market value of any security. Conflicts of interest may arise relating to our business dealings with some or all of the companies referenced herein, including potential advisory, transactional and other conflicts of interests. Any prices may not include transactional fees or fees charged by NPMS. Nasdaq Private Market, LLC is not (i) a registered exchange under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934; (ii) a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940; or (iii) a financial or tax planner, and does not offer legal, financial, investment, or tax advice. Nasdaq Private Market is operationally independent and distinct from the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC.
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