A Human(oid) Moment

Public markets were slightly softer this past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 trading down 1%/1%. Concerns over the US fiscal outlook and trade policy were somewhat offset by generally strong corporate earnings. Since “Liberation Day” on 4/2 the SP500/Nasdaq100 are now +3%/+8%. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 170 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is +1% over the same period.

In this week’s Private Markets Weekly, we wanted to examine the humanoid robot sector. Humanoid robot startups, such as Agility Robotics, Apptronik and Figure AI are among a handful of names for which we see growing inquiry and activity. Figure AI is reportedly attempting to raise $1.5bn at a $39.5bn post money valuation. Agility Robotics is currently seeking to raise $400mm at a $2.15bn post money valuation.

So why now? In our view, a couple technological advances have occurred at the right time for a step change in robotic functionality and economics. First, basic electronics components have become cheaper and more reliable. Cameras, motors, sensors, batteries – the building blocks for humanoid robots – have all improved and come down in cost. Second, AI technology now offers the promise of robots capable of working in less structured environments, and, potentially, shoulder to shoulder with humans.

Combined with a growing library of training data, these advancements suggest that scaled fleets of humanoid robots are possible within the next several years. First, we expect robots to work in industrial environments, which is already beginning to occur on a small scale. A key gating item will be safety approvals from a variety of regulatory organizations, which will be necessary for robots to work alongside humans. Robots for home use, in our view, are much farther out.

From the demand side, we also highlight that an aging population is driving a growing shortage of manual labor. According to the Urban Institute, the number of Americans 65 or older will reach about ~20% by 2040 from ~13% in 2000. Agility Robotics believes the total addressable market for humanoid robots exceeds $200bn and that there are over 1mm open jobs in the US that could be filled by robots. (Source: Agility Robotics)

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers in the private market since the 4/2 “Liberation Day” have been Anduril Industries (+47% estimated share price performance), x.AI (+28%) and Cohesity (+23%).

RECENT EVENTS

• The House narrowly passed President Trump’s tax and spending package, which is projected to add $2.5 trillion to the national debt over a decade.
• Moody’s downgraded the US sovreign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa. (Reuters; 5/16)
• OpenAI will anchor a massive 5GW data center project in Abu Dhabi. (5/16; StrictlyVC)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• Acrisure raised $2.1bn at a $32bn valuation in a round led by Bain Capital (5/21; Reuters)
• Nvidia is in talks to invest in quantum computing startup PsiQuantum at a $6bn pre=money valuation. (5/18; Reuters)
• OpenAI is getting a $7bn loan from JP Morgan to build out its data center in Abilene, TX. (5/22; The Information)

NOTABLE EXITS

• OpenAI is paying $6.5bn in stock to acquire former Apple Chief Design Officer Jony Ive’s hardware startup, Io. (5/21; StrictlyVC)
• Regeneron is buying 23andMe out of bankruptcy for $256mm. (5/19; StrictlyVC)
• Hinge Health priced its IPO at the high end of the range, roughly a $2.6bn equity value. (5/21; Bloomberg)