A New Fish in the Market

Public markets have now fully recouped their losses for the year, with the S&P500/NASDAQ100 now +0%/+1% YTD. Sentiment was buoyed by optimism for a trade deal with China, where the US agreed to temporarily drop tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145% and China dropped reciprocal tariffs to 10% from 125%. In addition, April inflation of +0.2% m/m was below +0.3% consensus (Bloomberg 5/13). Since “Liberation Day” on 4/2 the SP500/Nasdaq100 are now +4%/+9%. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 170 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is +1% over the same period.

In private markets, we wanted to call investor attention to some new developments from across the pond. In the UK, the government is marching towards a new framework for trading private stock, called the Private Intermittent Securities and Capital Exchange System (“PISCES”). The idea is to establish periodic windows for the trading of private company shares with standardized documentation and digital processing. The trading windows are designed to be issuer-led to ensure no board or additional approvals are needed for trade clearance. To date, the UK private share market has been fragmented and highly illiquid.

While we do not know the full details of how PISCES will work, we wanted to highlight the evolution of the private secondary market outside the US as well. Rules to establish PISCES are expected from the UK Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) later this month, and it is expected that rules will enable multiple operators to establish trading platforms. We note that the UK does not have an equivalent of the US Rule 144, which governs the resale of restricted securities, which is partially why we find this development noteworthy. (Source: Bloomberg; Farrer & Co.)

OpenAI is reportedly on the verge of announcing a new Stargate data center project in the UAE. (Source: The Information) If this occurs, it will be the first international data center project for OpenAI and Stargate. When initially announced in January 2025, Stargate (a consortium operated by OpenAI) was focused on deploying $500bn for the buildout of US AI infrastructure. In addition, Softbank indicated it has endorsed the revised restructuring plan unveiled by OpenAI last week. This fact is relevant given that Softbank is the anchor for the remaining $30bn tranche of the $40bn financing announced in Feb 2025. (Source: Bloomberg) There was, in our estimation, some market concern that a change in the OpenAI restructuring plan could give Softbank pause.

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers in the private market since the 4/2 “Liberation Day” have been Anduril Industries (+34% estimated share price performance), x.AI (+24%) and Cohesity (+21%) ).

RECENT EVENTS

• President Trump signed an executive order to lower drug prices in the US by pegging them to lower prices abroad. (5/12; Bloomberg)
• 401k provider Empower will let some accounts add private credit, private equity and real estate later this year. (5/13; WSJ)
• The SEC and blockchain infrastructure company Ripple Labs announced a $50mm settlement. (5/9; Bloomberg)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• Perplexity is in talks to raise $500mm at a $14bn valuation (5/12; WSJ)
• Snowflake competitor Clickhouse is raising capital at a $6bn valuation. (5/8; The Information)
• UK fintech Tide is raising capital at a $1bn valuation (5/5; Financial News London)

NOTABLE EXITS

• Fintech Chime Financial Inc. filed for an IPO led by Morgan Stanley. (5/13; Bloomberg)
• Datbricks is acquiring database startup Neon for $1bn. (5/13; Bloomberg)
• Citi is selling its private market funds unit to privately held iCapital. (5/13; Bloomberg)