As Good as it Gets?

Public markets were up slightly over the past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 +1%/+2%. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +15/+20%. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now +25% YTD. (Source: NPM; Bloomberg)​​​​

Reaching for records. Several indicators of market sentiment have reached near-record levels (Bloomberg, WSJ, Yahoo Finance):

S&P 500. Public equity valuations are near all-time highs, fueled by gains in technology/AI-related stocks (AMD was a notable mover this past week following an announced deal with OpenAI) as well as anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Gold. Gold prices topped $4,000/oz this last week, driven by global economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and strong investor demand for safe-haven assets aside from the US dollar (the USD is down ~10% YTD). Silver and platinum have also reached record levels.

Bitcoin. Spurred by similar factors, Bitcoin broke through its previous all-time high around $125,000.

Credit spreads. Investment Grade and High Yield credit spreads are at all-time tights, around ~75 bps and ~280 bps, respectively. Lack of supply is one reason (corporates have been hesitant to borrow at higher interest rates); investors are looking to lock in yields ahead of Fed rate cuts.

One interesting takeaway is that both safe-haven assets (aside from the US dollar, which has been hit by political volatility and a persistent fiscal deficit, among other factors) and higher-risk assets such as equities are performing well. This could be an indicator of conflicting views on the market, with the continued boom in technology/AI-related investment and relatively strong corporate balance sheets pitted against inflation/recession concerns. On one hand, consensus is for 1.8% US GDP growth in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024 (Bloomberg) but still far from recessionary. At the same time AI-related spending appears to be driving the bulk of GDP growth this year (New York Times, Fortune), creating concern of the ramifications if spending were to cool (WSJ, Reuters).

Private markets have outperformed in 2025 but lagged over a longer-term period: They are up 17% since January 2024 compared with the S&P up 77%. Similar to public equity markets, technology/AI names have driven a significant percentage of the market gain.

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been X.AI (+176% estimated share price performance), PsiQuantum (+139%) and Anduril (+139%). (Source: NPM)

RECENT EVENTS

• xAI is raising $20 billion through an SPV in a deal that includes Nvidia investing up to $2 billion. (10/8, Axios)
• OpenAI announced a multi-year partnership with AMD; the agreement features a warrant for OpenAI to acquire up to a 10% equity stake in AMD. (10/6; company press releases)
• SoftBank announced the purchase of the robotics division of Swiss industrial conglomerate ABB for $5.4 billion. (10/8; SoftBank press release)
• Firefly Aerospace agreed to acquire SciTec, a Princeton-based defense company, for $855 million in cash and stock. (10/6; Axios)
• Stoke Space raised a $510 million Series D. (10/9, Payload)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the NYSE, is investing up to $2 billion in prediction market Polymarket at an $8 billion valuation. (10/7; StrictlyVC)
• Kalshi, also a prediction market, raised over $300 million in a Series D at a $5 billion valuation. (10/10 Axios)
• Reflection AI, an open-source AI model startup, raised $2 billion at an $8 billion valuation. (10/10; Axios)

NOTABLE EXITS

• Several SPACS went public this week: (Axios)
• GigCapital8 raised $220 million.​​​​​​
• Lake Superior Acquisition raised $115 million.
• AI Infrastructure Acquisition raised $120 million.
• Range Capital Acquisition II raised $200 million.
• BOA Acquisition II, a SPAC focused on real estate and infrastructure, filed for a $200 million IPO. (10/7; Axios)
• Cerebras Systems withdrew its IPO registration after raising $1.1 billion in Series G funding at an $8.1 billion valuation the prior week. (10/6; Axios)