Public markets were flattish over the past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 0%/0%. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +17/+22%. Equities shrugged off a 25bp Fed rate cut on Wed, which notes show was highly debated. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now +58% YTD. (NPM; Bloomberg)
Entering 2025, many participants in our market were expecting, or at least hoping for, a rapid rebound in the IPO market. They were largely correct. With 2025 essentially “in the bag” we wanted to draw some conclusions from the year in IPOs.
First, some numbers. Total US IPO dollar volume (exluding SPACs and deals $1bn in 2025 vs. just 2 in 2024. (NPM; Bloomberg)
Performance has been solid, but not excessive. If an investor invested equally in every IPO to date in 2025 total return to date would be +16% vs. the +10% an investor would have gotten investing equally in 2024s IPOs. While these returns are more than acceptable, we note that they lag the broader public equity market indices YTD. (NPM; Bloomberg)
In short, the IPO market in 2025 marked a turning point: although activity remained well below 2021 levels, 2025 listings were generally higher-quality, more mature, and closer to profitability. In our view, this dynamic restored some confidence to both issuers and underwriters, helping, in our view, establish a constructive foundation for 2026. (NPM)
IPO Market Outlook for 2026. The IPO pipeline still includes a sizable backlog of late-stage companies (e.g. SpaceX has recently suggested a 2026 IPO) that have delayed going public for multiple years, spanning AI infrastructure, enterprise software, space and fintech. Investor appetite is likely to remain selective: companies with strong margins and durable growth could see healthy demand, while businesses with high burn rates or unclear paths to profitability may continue facing chilly reception. On balance, we believe continued improvement in the IPO market could benefit secondary market investors, for whom liquidity/exit potential is often a significant investment risk. (NPM; StrictlyVC)
BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES
Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been Crusoe (+286% estimated share price performance), Anthropic (+340%), and OpenAI (+195%). (Source: NPM)
RECENT EVENTS
- Oracle shares fell 11% on higher than expected capex driven by data centers. (12/11; Bloomberg)
- Rivian shares fell 6% after unveiling a new AI chip for self-driving. (12/11; Bloomberg)
- OpenAI began rolling out a new model, GPT-5.2, partly in response to Google’s Gemini 3, which has been well received. (12/11; Bloomberg)
- Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are both backing efforts to build AI datacenters in space. (12/10; StrictlyVC)
- Paramount Skydance launched an unsolicited $108bn all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. (12/8; CNBC)
NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES
- SkildAI is in talks to raise $1+bn at a $14bn valuation. (12/8; StrictlyVC)
- Boom Supersonic raised $300mm in a Series B led by Darsana Capital Partners. (12/9; StrictlyVC)
NOTABLE EXITS
- SpaceX is reportedly lining up banks for a potential 2026 IPO at a reported $1.5tn valuation. (12/9; StrictlyVC)
- Robo advisor Wealthfront raised $485mm in an IPO. (12/11; Bloomberg)
This commentary is produced by the Capital Markets desk of NPM Securities, LLC (“NPMS”), a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a member of FINRA and SIPC, and is solely for internal use by you. Any unauthorized distribution to any other external party is prohibited. This commentary is provided for general informational purposes only, including the statistical information provided herein, and should not be considered a recommendation or personalized investment advice. The material is based in part on information from third-party sources that we consider reliable, but which have not been independently verified by us and for this reason, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document and the income from such investments may fluctuate, and investors may realize losses on these investments, including a loss of principal. The information should not be taken as tax, investment, legal or other advice, nor should it to be relied upon in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing related to the information in this communication should be construed as a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future performance or returns. Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors. An investment in private company securities is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. You must be prepared to withstand a total loss of your investment. Private company securities are also highly illiquid and the is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities. Each investment also carries its own specific risks and investors should conduct their own, independent due diligence regarding the investment, including obtaining additional information about the company, opinions, financial projections and legal or investment advice. Accordingly, investing in private company securities is appropriate only for those investors who can tolerate a high degree of risk and do not require a liquid investment. Please note these securities are being resold pursuant to an exemption from registration and may not be resold by means of any form of general solicitation or any advertising. Registered representatives of NPMS do not (i) advise on the merits or prudence of a particular investment or transaction, or (ii) assist in the determination of fair market value of any security. Conflicts of interest may arise relating to our business dealings with some or all of the companies referenced herein, including potential advisory, transactional and other conflicts of interests. Any prices may not include transactional fees or fees charged by NPMS. Nasdaq Private Market, LLC is not (i) a registered exchange under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934; (ii) a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940; or (iii) a financial or tax planner, and does not offer legal, financial, investment, or tax advice. Nasdaq Private Market is operationally independent and distinct from the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC.
For further full disclosures please visit the NPM website at www.nasdaqprivatemarket.com and our Form CRS.
