Baby Got Backlog

Public markets were flattish over the past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 0%/0%. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +17/+22%. Equities shrugged off a 25bp Fed rate cut on Wed, which notes show was highly debated. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now +58% YTD. (NPM; Bloomberg)

Entering 2025, many participants in our market were expecting, or at least hoping for, a rapid rebound in the IPO market. They were largely correct. With 2025 essentially “in the bag” we wanted to draw some conclusions from the year in IPOs.

First, some numbers. Total US IPO dollar volume (exluding SPACs and deals $1bn in 2025 vs. just 2 in 2024. (NPM; Bloomberg)

Performance has been solid, but not excessive. If an investor invested equally in every IPO to date in 2025 total return to date would be +16% vs. the +10% an investor would have gotten investing equally in 2024s IPOs. While these returns are more than acceptable, we note that they lag the broader public equity market indices YTD. (NPM; Bloomberg)

In short, the IPO market in 2025 marked a turning point: although activity remained well below 2021 levels, 2025 listings were generally higher-quality, more mature, and closer to profitability. In our view, this dynamic restored some confidence to both issuers and underwriters, helping, in our view, establish a constructive foundation for 2026. (NPM)

IPO Market Outlook for 2026. The IPO pipeline still includes a sizable backlog of late-stage companies (e.g. SpaceX has recently suggested a 2026 IPO) that have delayed going public for multiple years, spanning AI infrastructure, enterprise software, space and fintech. Investor appetite is likely to remain selective: companies with strong margins and durable growth could see healthy demand, while businesses with high burn rates or unclear paths to profitability may continue facing chilly reception. On balance, we believe continued improvement in the IPO market could benefit secondary market investors, for whom liquidity/exit potential is often a significant investment risk. (NPM; StrictlyVC)

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been Crusoe (+286% estimated share price performance), Anthropic (+340%), and OpenAI (+195%). (Source: NPM)

RECENT EVENTS

• Oracle shares fell 11% on higher than expected capex driven by data centers. (12/11; Bloomberg)
• Rivian shares fell 6% after unveiling a new AI chip for self-driving. (12/11; Bloomberg)
• OpenAI began rolling out a new model, GPT-5.2, partly in response to Google’s Gemini 3, which has been well received. (12/11; Bloomberg)
• Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are both backing efforts to build AI datacenters in space. (12/10; StrictlyVC)
• Paramount Skydance launched an unsolicited $108bn all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. (12/8; CNBC)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• SkildAI is in talks to raise $1+bn at a $14bn valuation. (12/8; StrictlyVC)
• Boom Supersonic raised $300mm in a Series B led by Darsana Capital Partners. (12/9; StrictlyVC)

NOTABLE EXITS

• SpaceX is reportedly lining up banks for a potential 2026 IPO at a reported $1.5tn valuation. (12/9; StrictlyVC)
• Robo advisor Wealthfront raised $485mm in an IPO. (12/11; Bloomberg)