Eye to the Skies

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down ~1% and ~2.4%, respectively, this week with Thursday’s CPI print (higher-than-expected inflation) and fresh concerns around tech valuations ending a mid-week rally. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +15/+18%. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data is +54% YTD. (Source: NPM; Bloomberg)

Eye to the skies. SpaceX is the dominant name in the private market space industry in terms of valuation and secondary trading. But this year the space industry has seen several capital raises, including a $510 million Series D from launch company Stoke Space (company reports), a $110 million Series B from satellite company K2 Space (Space News), $400 million combined for a Series C and D from satellite bus company Apex Space (Payload) and others. This week, we highlight some space trends we’re watching.

More satellites in Low Earth Orbit… There are currently more than 13,000 active satellites in LEO. ~2,700 were launched in each of 2023 and 2024, and 2025 launches are set to match or exceed that. (Satellite Industry Association, Planet 4589). This rapid increase has been driven by the rise of constellation projects which deploy thousands of interconnected small satellites to deliver global internet services. Starlink alone has represented ~70% of launches over the last three years. There could be 20,000 satellites in orbit by 2030 (Space News), though additional launch capacity could take the number higher.

…drives management and clean up services. The soaring numbers of satellites has driven demand for orbital servicing infrastructure, including propulsion technology to move satellites around and vehicles that can perform repairs and modifications in space (World Economic Forum). It has also driven demand for active debris removal and data services to track debris (Deloitte).

Focus on dual-use. If having an “AI angle” has become almost a must-have for companies in this market, space companies are starting to develop a Golden Dome angle. Rocket Lab’s August acquisition of Geost and Firefly Aerospace’s October acquisition of SciTec give each company capability in missile warning, tracking and space domain awareness (company reports). Sierra Space is raising new capital to develop missile warning and detection capability (The Information). Given the large dollars at stake for Golden Dome contracts, we would expect supplying this program to be a key focus for companies in the industry going forward.

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been Anthropic (+377% estimated share price performance), Crusoe (+293%), and OpenAI (+277%). (Source: NPM)

RECENT EVENTS

• Blue Origin landed the first stage booster of its New Glenn rocket during its second-ever flight. (11/14, Via Satellite)
• Anthropic plans to invest $50 billion in building its own data centers in Texas and New York. (11/12, The Information)
• CoreWeave shares were down ~27% on the week as the company announced delays related to a third-party data center developer who is behind schedule. (company reports)
• Rumble agreed to buy German data center company Northern Data for $970 million in stock. (11/11, Pitchbook)
• Softbank sold its stake in Nvidia for $5.83 billion as it invests in OpenAI. (11/12, The Information)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• Anysphere, the maker of coding assistant Cursor, raised $2.3 billion at a $23.9 billion post-money valuation. (11/13, Bloomberg)
• Clio, a Vancouver-based company that develops software for law firms, raised a $500 million Series G and announced its acquisition of vLex for $1 billion. (11/10, StrictlyVC)
• Chaos Industries, a maker of counter-drone radar systems, raised $510 million at a $4.5 billion valuation. (11/13, Reuters)
• Valar Atomics, an atomic energy startup, raised a $130 million Series A (11/11, Pitchbook)
• Kim Kardashian-co-founded apparel brand Skims raised $225 million at a $5 billion valuation. (11/12, The Information).

NOTABLE EXITS

• Grayscale, a crypto asset manager, filed for an IPO. (11/13, Pitchbook)
• Launchpad Streetlight Acquisition (a restaurant and hospitality SPAC), Activate Energy Acquisition (an oil and gas SPAC) and Evolution Global Acquisition (a critical minerals SPAC) all filed for IPOs. (11/12 and 11/13, Pitchbook)