Flight Club

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each ended the week up about 1%, buoyed by strong earnings from technology companies and banks (though Tesla and Netflix were notable underperformers on earnings). YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +16/+19%. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is +25% YTD. (Source: NPM; Bloomberg)

Countering the drones. Drones are a key element of modern warfighting. They have become more accessible and affordable over the last few years and have benefitted from real-time battlefield experience and improvement in conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war. Recent drone incursions into Poland and Denmark have also heightened concerns about offensive drone strikes that could include large swarms that are potentially extremely expensive to shoot down. Hence, the proliferation of drones has also generated significant interest in anti-drone technology.

Anti-drone technology can take many forms, including radar systems and electro-optical/infrared sensors that detect drones, as well as jamming technology and laser-based systems that can neutralize them. AI-powered systems can enhance detection accuracy by helping to distinguish drones from other objects and predicting their behavior. While US defense primes such as Northrop Grumman and neo primes such as Anduril are working on anti-drone technology, several startups are as well. They include: DroneShield, working on anti-drone hardware and software for detection, jamming and mitigation; Epirius, Inc., which specializes in directed-energy systems to counter drone swarms; Dedrone Holdings, which focuses on detection and monitoring of drones; SensoFusion Oy, a Danish company developing RF-based detection and takeover of unauthorize drones; D-Fend Solutions, an Israeli-company working on cyber-driven drone detection and takeover; an Allen Control Systems, which offers passive drone detection. (Source: Company websites)

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been X.AI (+176% estimated share price performance), PsiQuantum (+139%) and Anduril (+139%). (Source: NPM)

RECENT EVENTS

• Anthropic said it plans to use up to 1 million Google tensor chips to power its AI. (10/23, The Information)
• Amazon is preparing to replace more than half a million warehouse jobs with robots. (10/21, New York Times)
• OpenAI launched Atlas, an AI-powered browser that will compete with Chrome. (10/21, TechCrunch)
• Shield AI launched the X-BAT, an unmanned, AI-piloted fighter jet with vertical takeoff and landing capabilities. (10/21, Company reports)
• NASA acting chief Sean Duffy said the agency may reopen its $2.9 billion lunar lander contract to let other companies challenge SpaceX owing to delays in the Starship program. (10/20, CNN)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• Fal.ai, which hosts image, video and audio AI models for developers, raise ~$250 million at a valuation of over $4 billion. (StrictlyVC, 10.21).
• Redwood Materials, a battery recycling and grid storage firm, raise a $350 million Series E at a reported $6 billion valuation. (10/23, Axios)
• Uniphore, who develops AI software to help large enterprises automate business workflows and data operations, raise a $260 million Series F at a $2.5 billion pre-money valuation. (10/22 Strictly VC)
• Tempo, a blockchain-base payments startup, raise $500 million in Series A funding at a $5 billion valuation. (10/21, Axios)
• OpenEvidence, an AI medical assistant for doctors, raised $200 million at a $6 billion valuation. (10/20, Axios)

NOTABLE EXITS

• Several more SPACS went public or filed to do so this week: (Axios)
• Armada Acquisition III file for a $225 million IPO.
• Harvard Ave Acquisition raised $145 million in a downsized IPO.
• Idea Acquisition, an AI-focused SPAC, filed for a $350 million IPO.