Initial Public Optimism

Public markets were flattish over the past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 +0%/+1%. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +11/+12%. In our view, weak performance was driven primarily by rising optimism about the prospects for rate cuts, driven in part by softening employment data. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now +35% YTD, significantly outperforming public markets. (Source: NPM; Bloomberg)

After a slow start, the U.S. IPO market in 2025 has gained momentum, significantly outpacing both 2024 and 2023. As of early September 2025, there have been approximately 102 IPOs >$100mm in size YTD, compared to 82 for all of 2024 and just 29 in 2023. In the first half of 2025 alone, >$100mm IPO volume reached 72 deals (including SPACs), more than double the 34 seen in the same period of 2024. Correspondingly, total proceeds have risen sharply. IPOs raised $24bn in the first half of 2025, and the current YTD figure exceeds $34bn, already topping the 2024 annual total of $30bn and far surpassing 2023’s $13.5bn. (Source: Bloomberg)

A notable trend in 2025 has been the return of larger IPOs, particularly from technology firms. Six >$1bn IPOs have already occurred this year, including Venture Global LNG ($1.75B), CoreWeave (~$1.5B), Figma ($1.4bn), SailPoint ($1.4B), Circle Internet Group ($1.2B) and NIQ Global Intelligence ($1bn) vs. just 1/2 such IPOs in 2023/24. Venture capital–backed IPOs remain a significant portion of the market. In 2024, there were 34 VC-backed IPOs, accounting for roughly 40% of the total, and we believe 2025 is on pace to keep or grow that share. For 1H25 the TMT (technology, media, telecom) sector led in total capital raised—driven largely by AI and software. In Q2 2025, TMT accounted for 24% of IPOs and nearly half of total proceeds. (Source: Bloomberg; MPM; Pitchbook)

A key ingredient of a healthy IPO market is aftermarket performance, which in 2025 has been particularly robust. The average first-day return for IPOs in 1H25 was 15%, compared to 11% in the same period in 2024. A model portfolio investing in all 1H25 IPOs would have returned ~76%, a dramatic increase from the 17% in 1H24. Even excluding the outsized gains from high-profile listings like Circle Internet Group and CoreWeave, returns remained strong at ~43%. Sector performance varied widely; technology IPOs led (+246%), while energy and materials lagged. Anticipated IPO candidates include crypto exchange Gemini, fintechs Klarna and Revolut, cloud provider Lambda and data analytics firm Databricks. (Source: NPM; Bloomberg; Pitchbook)

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been Anthropic (+225% estimated share price performance), x.AI (+162%) and OpenAI (+161%). (Source: NPM)

​​​​RECENT EVENTS

Fed rate cut expectations climb after weak jobs report. (9/4; Bloomberg)

Tesla has offered a new pay package worth as much as $1 trillion to Elon Musk. (9/4; Bloomberg)

Broadcom and OpenAI are collaborating to produce a new line of AI chips, driving Broadcom shares +18%. (9/4; Bloomberg)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• Healthcare AI firm OpenEvidence is in talks to raise $100mm at a $6bn valuation. (8/29’ The Information)
• Databricks is raising ~$1bn at a $100bn valuation. (9/3; StrictlyVC)
• Robotic arm company Dyna Robotics is in talks to raise new capital at a $600mn valuation. (9/4; The Information)

NOTABLE EXITS

• OpenAI has raised the size of its employee tender to $10.3bn (9/4; The Information)​​​