Off the mat, but not yet standing

We have made it through another volatile week. As of Thursday, the S&P500 is +3% for the week, more than recovering from Monday’s 2% selloff (Bloomberg).

Since “Liberation Day” on 4/2, the SP500/Nasdaq 100 are now down just 4%/2%. Private markets have done even better, with our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 170 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, down just 1%. In other words, the absolute price movement has not been large, however, the volatility has been extreme. Since 4/2 the SP500 has had >2% moves on 50% of the trading days. The VIX (options volatility index) is currently 26, roughly unchanged w/w but still 28% above the 5 year average (Bloomberg).

In our view, the public market is, and will likely, remain driven by announcements coming out of the presidential administration on a given day. For instance, remember that the administration announced a 90 day pause on tariffs with all countries except China on April 9. To us, this makes traditional investor touch points, such as forecasts and consensus estimates, almost useless. We expect that high volatility in public markets will continue to benefit private markets, where we believe more participants are focused on long term value creation through secular growth stories.

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers in the private market since the 4/2 “Liberation Day” have been x.AI (+15% estimated share price performance), Anduril Industries (+13%) and Crusoe Inc. (+4%).

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

One data point we will watch is preliminary GDP growth for 1Q25, which will be released on 4/30. The current Bloomberg consensus is for 0.4% GDP growth in 1Q25 vs. 2.4% in 4Q24. However, remember that the 1Q average likely includes a strong Jan and far weaker Feb/Mar numbers. On 4/22 the IMF reduced its 2025 GDP growth forecast for the US to 1.8% from 2.7% (Source: CNBC).

RECENT EVENTS

• On 4/22 proceeding began in an antitrust suit brought by the Department of Justice Department against Google. At the trial, an OpenAI executive testified that the company would be interested in acquiring
• ​​​Google’s Chrome browser if given the opportunity. (Bloomberg)
• On 4/23 chipmaker Intel announced plans to lay off ~20% of its workforce. (Bloomberg)
• On 4/22, Elon Musk announced he would step back from the Department of Government Efficiency to spend more time at Tesla following a weak quarter. (Bloomberg)
• On 4/16, Nvidia announced it expects to take a $5.5bn writedown due to restrictions on its ability to sell chips into China. (Bloomberg)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• Elon Musk founded Neuralink has launched a $500mm funding round at an $8.5bn pre money valuation. (StrictlyVC)

NOTABLE EXITS

• Terra Innovatum, a small scale nuclear reactor company, announced it was going public via a SPAC at a $475mm valuation. (Bloomberg)
• OpenAI is in talks to buy coding assistant company Windsurf for over $3bn (Bloomberg; 4/17)
• Yale University is considering selling $6bn of private equity fund interests due in part to uncertainties around the outlook for federal university funding. (Yale Daily News; 4/22)