Private Shares in Your Pension?

Public markets were flat over the past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 +0%/+1%. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +7%/+10%. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now +18% YTD, significantly outperforming public markets.

Per the Wall Street Journal, President Trump is expected to imminently sign an executive order to make private investments available to US 401(k) plans. In his first term, Trump’s Labor Department laid the groundwork by issuing guidance in 2020 allowing 401(k) plan sponsors to include private equity within diversified investment vehicles. Now the second Trump White House is pushing for further deregulation. An executive order would presumably direct the SEC and the Department of Labor to revise rules related to private investments in 401(k) plans. We would expect a rule making period of at least several months, meaning the green light for products actually offering private exposure in 401(k)s will likely not come before 2026, at the earliest.

If successful, we view this as a significant development for the secondary private share market. First, allowing funds from the US $8.9 trillion 401k market (Source: Investment Company Institute) to flow into private investments has the potential to expose the secondary share market to a large, fresh, pool of capital. Second, we would expect to see development of new 401k compatible products for private shares, which presumably would help further the institutionalization of the private secondary market. Third, we see potential for greater standardization and transparency of fees in the secondary market to fit 401k fiduciary obligations and cost structures. Fourth, we would expect liquidity to improve, leading to greater efficiency in private share price discovery.

While some fiduciary experts and retirement advocates fear this shift could expose everyday Americans to products they don’t fully understand, we believe the political momentum appears to be on the side of this deregulation. ​​​Trump’s team has framed the initiative as part of a broader strategy to reduce regulatory barriers, and the inclusion of private investments in retirement accounts would be consistent with this goal.

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been x.AI (+176% estimated share price performance), Anduril Industries (+139%) and OpenAI (+119%).​​​​

RECENT EVENTS

• Elon Musk indicated Tesla shareholders would vote on investing directly in x.AI. (7/14; WSJ)
• Blue Owl and Voya entered a partnership to bring private market investment options to retirement plans. (7/14; Investment News)
• X.AI‘s chatbot Grok made antisemitic comments, causing renewed concerns over AI safety. (7/16; StrictlyVC)
• Scale AI laid off 14% of its staff following the recent investment by Meta. (7/16; Bloomberg)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• London based fintech Revolut is in talks to raise $1bn at a $65bn valuation. (7/10; Pitchbook)
• Math startup Harmonic AI, founded by Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev; has raised $100mm at a $900mm valuation (7/10; Bloomberg)
• Perplexity raised $100mm at an $18bn valuation, up from $14bn a few months ago. (7/17; Bloomberg)

NOTABLE EXITS

• MiniMax, a Shanghai startup building AI models, has filed for an IPO at a $4bn+ valuation. (7/16; Reuters)
• Via, a startup providing on demand transit software to cities, has filed for an IPO. (7/16; TechCrunch)
• Crypto asset manager Grayscale confidentially filed an S-1. (7/16; Bloomberg)