Public markets were relatively flat over the past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 +1%/+0%. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +9%/+11%. Major market stories this week included strong earnings from MSFT and META and a handful of new tariff announcements. In addition, the Federal Reserve opted to keep rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting on Wednesday. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now +23% YTD, significantly outperforming public markets. (Source: NPM; Bloomberg)
On 7/30, JP Morgan and Coinbase announced a partnership to facilitate crypto purchases via credit cards, another step towards more mainstream acceptance of digital currencies. We note this as a reversal from an influential financial institution whose CEO famously likened bitcoin to a “pet rock” in Jan 2024 (Source: CNBC). While this is just one data point, cryptocurrency is undeniably experiencing a resurgence in 2025, driven by a confluence of regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and technological advancements.
Perhaps most significantly, under President Trump’s second term the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies has undergone a transformative shift. One key development was Executive Order 14178, which prohibits the establishment of a central bank digital currency and directs the creation of a federal digital asset framework. In addition, the passage of the GENIUS Act on 7/18/25 mandates that stablecoins be fully backed by low-risk assets, enhancing transparency and consumer protection. The SEC has also restructured its approach, with a new Crypto Task Force led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, aiming to develop comprehensive guidelines for the industry. Looking ahead, the development of a U.S. government-held bitcoin stockpile, as outlined in Executive Order 14178, could position the United States as a global leader in digital asset reserves. (Source: Bloomberg; WSJ)
On the heels of these developments the crypto ecosystem has performed well. Bitcoin is +25% YTD, Ethereum is +13% and Coinbase is +49%. At NPM, two of our most active names have been Ripple Labs (+80% YTD) and Payward (aka Kraken, +115%). (Source: NPM; Bloomberg)
BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES
Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been x.AI (+159% estimated share price performance), Anduril Industries (+125%) and OpenAI (+122%). (Source: NPM)
RECENT EVENTS
- Meta shares were +12% Thursday following strong earnings. (7/31; Bloomberg)
- Microsoft shares were +4% following strong 2Q results. (7/31; Bloomberg)
- The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged for the fifth straight meeting and commentary suggested the bank intends to move at a measured pace. (7/30; Bloomberg).
NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES
- Cerebras suggested the company is seeking $1bn in private funding in lieu of an immediate IPO. (7/29; The Information)
NOTABLE EXITS
- Design software company Figma priced its IPO at $33 per share, valuing it at $19bn. (7/31; Bloomberg)
This commentary is produced by the Capital Markets desk of NPM Securities, LLC (“NPMS”), a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a member of FINRA and SIPC, and is solely for internal use by you. Any unauthorized distribution to any other external party is prohibited. This commentary is provided for general informational purposes only, including the statistical information provided herein, and should not be considered a recommendation or personalized investment advice. The material is based in part on information from third-party sources that we consider reliable, but which have not been independently verified by us and for this reason, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document and the income from such investments may fluctuate, and investors may realize losses on these investments, including a loss of principal. The information should not be taken as tax, investment, legal or other advice, nor should it to be relied upon in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing related to the information in this communication should be construed as a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future performance or returns. Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors. An investment in private company securities is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. You must be prepared to withstand a total loss of your investment. Private company securities are also highly illiquid and the is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities. Each investment also carries its own specific risks and investors should conduct their own, independent due diligence regarding the investment, including obtaining additional information about the company, opinions, financial projections and legal or investment advice. Accordingly, investing in private company securities is appropriate only for those investors who can tolerate a high degree of risk and do not require a liquid investment. Please note these securities are being resold pursuant to an exemption from registration and may not be resold by means of any form of general solicitation or any advertising. Registered representatives of NPMS do not (i) advise on the merits or prudence of a particular investment or transaction, or (ii) assist in the determination of fair market value of any security. Conflicts of interest may arise relating to our business dealings with some or all of the companies referenced herein, including potential advisory, transactional and other conflicts of interests. Any prices may not include transactional fees or fees charged by NPMS. Nasdaq Private Market, LLC is not (i) a registered exchange under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934; (ii) a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940; or (iii) a financial or tax planner, and does not offer legal, financial, investment, or tax advice. Nasdaq Private Market is operationally independent and distinct from the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC.
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