Public markets were relatively flat over the past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 +1%/+0%. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +9%/+11%. Major market stories this week included strong earnings from MSFT and META and a handful of new tariff announcements. In addition, the Federal Reserve opted to keep rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting on Wednesday. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now +23% YTD, significantly outperforming public markets. (Source: NPM; Bloomberg)
On 7/30, JP Morgan and Coinbase announced a partnership to facilitate crypto purchases via credit cards, another step towards more mainstream acceptance of digital currencies. We note this as a reversal from an influential financial institution whose CEO famously likened bitcoin to a “pet rock” in Jan 2024 (Source: CNBC). While this is just one data point, cryptocurrency is undeniably experiencing a resurgence in 2025, driven by a confluence of regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and technological advancements.
Perhaps most significantly, under President Trump’s second term the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies has undergone a transformative shift. One key development was Executive Order 14178, which prohibits the establishment of a central bank digital currency and directs the creation of a federal digital asset framework. In addition, the passage of the GENIUS Act on 7/18/25 mandates that stablecoins be fully backed by low-risk assets, enhancing transparency and consumer protection. The SEC has also restructured its approach, with a new Crypto Task Force led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, aiming to develop comprehensive guidelines for the industry. Looking ahead, the development of a U.S. government-held bitcoin stockpile, as outlined in Executive Order 14178, could position the United States as a global leader in digital asset reserves. (Source: Bloomberg; WSJ)
On the heels of these developments the crypto ecosystem has performed well. Bitcoin is +25% YTD, Ethereum is +13% and Coinbase is +49%. At NPM, two of our most active names have been Ripple Labs (+80% YTD) and Payward (aka Kraken, +115%). (Source: NPM; Bloomberg)
BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES
Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been x.AI (+159% estimated share price performance), Anduril Industries (+125%) and OpenAI (+122%). (Source: NPM)
RECENT EVENTS
- Meta shares were +12% Thursday following strong earnings. (7/31; Bloomberg)
- Microsoft shares were +4% following strong 2Q results. (7/31; Bloomberg)
- The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged for the fifth straight meeting and commentary suggested the bank intends to move at a measured pace. (7/30; Bloomberg).
NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES
- Cerebras suggested the company is seeking $1bn in private funding in lieu of an immediate IPO. (7/29; The Information)
NOTABLE EXITS
- Design software company Figma priced its IPO at $33 per share, valuing it at $19bn. (7/31; Bloomberg)
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