The Secondary Market’s Mainstream Moment

Public markets were weak over the past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 -3%/-5%. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +13/+17%. In our view, weak performance was driven primarily by concerns about labor market weakness and AI “bubble” anxiety. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now up a whopping 54% YTD, flat on the week. (NPM; Bloomberg)

A flurry of recent acquisitions may mark a structural shift in how traditional financial institutions approach private share trading. Morgan Stanley’s announcement that it will acquire EquityZen on 10/29 and Charles Schwab’s acquisition of Forge Global for $660mm (~5.3x 2026E sales) on 11/6 may signal that incumbents are no longer content to simply partner with independent marketplaces. Rather, they are moving to own them outright, integrating pre-IPO investing into their broader wealth offerings. (Bloomberg; NPM)

The suggestion is that private share distribution is emerging as a valuable differentiator. Large financial institutions are betting that controlling the client relationship—particularly with high net worth investors—creates a channel to scale private share distribution. Secondly, scale and data appear to be emerging as competitive advantages. Marketplaces with deep order flow and transaction history can generate pricing and valuation intelligence (like NPM’s Tape D product) that smaller players cannot. (Bloomberg; NPM)

To us, the deals also signal a broader verticalization of private market infrastructure. We expect a continued trend towards tighter integration across the stack—combining tender administration, cap table administration, secondary trading, data, and wealth distribution into unified platforms. The result, in our view, over time will be fewer, larger incumbents in private markets that dominate liquidity and pricing power. (Bloomberg; NPM)

Will consolidation continue? Our crystal ball is cloudy, but interest in the asset class is clearly robust. Beyond banks, other theoretical acquirers include large broker dealers and wealth managers, both of which could integrate private share trading to offer differentiated wealth products. In addition, traditional asset managers, many of which are already expanding into private credit and venture secondaries, could pursue acquisitions. Finally, certain fintechs could look to integrate private market liquidity into their platforms. (NPM)

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been Anthropic (+353% estimated share price performance), Crusoe (+291%) and OpenAI (+264%). (Source: NPM)

RECENT EVENTS

• Softbank’s stock fell 10% on fears of an AI “bubble” (11/5; Bloomberg)
• Shareholders approved Elon Musk’s potential $1 trillion pay package at Tesla. (11/6 CNBC)
• Anthropic is projecting $70bn in sales and $17bn of cash flow by 2028. (11/4; The Information)
• The US government estimates that $41bn is being spent annually on data center buildouts. (11/4; The Wall Street Journal)
• OpenAI agreed to pay Amazon $38bn for cloud services (11/3; StrictlyVC)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• Crusoe is completing a $120mm secondary sale at a $13bn valuation (11/5; StrictlyVC)
• Security startup Armis raised $435mm at a $6.1bn valuation led by Goldman Sachs. (11/5; StrictlyVC)

NOTABLE EXITS

• Beta Technologies, a Vermont based electric aircraft startup, went pubic, raising $1bn. (11/4; StrictlyVC)