The Wait is Over

Public markets were strong over the past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 +2%/+3%. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +17/+23%. In our view, strong performance was driven primarily by hope of a China trade deal and a 25bp rate cut by the FOMC. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now up a whopping 54% YTD. (NPM; Bloomberg)

OpenAI dominated news for yet another week, announcing on 10/28 that it had completed its long-awaited for-profit restructuring. The company confirmed that it has converted into a public-benefit corporation (“PBC”) and granted its nonprofit parent a ~$130bn equity stake and board control. Alongside this, OpenAI (1) reaffirmed its partnership with Microsoft, which will now hold ~27% of the company (about $135bn) and (2) announced a new commerce integration with PayPal that enables payments directly within ChatGPT. Together, we view these developments as key milestones in OpenAI’s transition from a leading edge AI research lab to a full-scale platform and infrastructure business built for commercial expansion. Bloomberg also reported that MSFT will receive 20% of OpenAI’s revenue through 2032. (Reuters; Bloomberg)

For investors, the restructuring removes a large overhang, clarifying the capital stack and various profit sharing arrangements and presumably providing cleaner access to capital. Following the announcement, Reuters reported that sources at OpenAI indicated the restructuring paves the way for a potential IPO in late 26 or early 27. (Reuters; NPM)

Given OpenAI’s role at the center of the broader AI ecosystem, the ripple effects extend to many companies. From MSFT’s perspective, the deepened partnership reinforces MSFT Azure’s role as the leading AI cloud platform and strengthens its competitive position against AWS and Google Cloud. NVIDIA stands to benefit from a renewed wave of infrastructure investment, as both OpenAI and its rivals will continue require vast GPU capacity to train and deploy models. (NPM; Bloomberg)

Meanwhile, peers like Anthropic and Meta face growing competitive pressure. OpenAI’s newfound ability to raise capital—paired with Microsoft’s backing—raises the resource bar across the industry. In our view, Anthropic will likely continue to emphasize differentiation in model safety and enterprise control, while Meta will push its open-source strategy harder to maintain influence among developers and regulators. (NPM; Bloomberg)

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been Anthropic (+356% estimated share price performance), Crusoe (+275%) and OpenAI (+246%). (Source: NPM)

RECENT EVENTS

• Amazon shares were +13% following stronger than expected cloud (AWS) results.
• Amazon also announced it was cutting 14,000 corporate jobs, in part due to AI efficiencies. (10/30 Bloomberg)
• Apple shares were +5% following strong earnings and guidance. (10/30; Bloomberg)
• The DOJ seized $15bn of cryptocurrency in Cambodia. (10/14; CNBC)
• Sequoia launched a new $750mm early stage fund. (StrictlyVC; 10/27)
• Google unveiled a new quantum algorithm that runs 13,000 faster than the current top supercomputer. (10/22; StrictlyVC)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• Nvidia plans to invest $1bn in AI startup Poolside (10/30; Bloomberg)
• Autonomous driving company Pony AI lauched a Hong Kong IPO that could value the company at >$10bn. (10/28; StrictlyVC)
• Chinese humanoid robot company Leju Robot raised $207mm in a pre-IPO round led by Greenwoods Asset Management. (10/22; StrictlyVC)

NOTABLE EXITS

• Travel software firm Navan priced a $923mm IPO and shares fell 20% on first day of trading. (10/30; Bloomberg)
• Netflix weighing bid for Warner Studio. (10/30; Bloomberg)
• Intel reportedly in talks to buy AI chip startup SambaNova. (10/30; Bloomberg)