When Old Becomes New Again

Public markets trended up slightly over the past week, with the S&P500/Nasdaq100 +1%/+1%. YTD the S&P500/Nasdaq100 are now +8%/+11%. Our NPM Private Market Tracker*, which shows the estimated average price performance of the 50 largest names in our internal Tape D® data, is now +20% YTD, significantly outperforming public markets.

Continuation funds—GP-led recapitalizations that transfer select assets from mature funds into new vehicles—have surged into the mainstream. A continuation fund is a vehicle designed to extend a PE firm’s ownership of one or more portfolio investments beyond the life of the original fund. The continuation fund allows initial investors to realize returns while allowing the GP to retain exposure to the assets.

In 2024, GP-led secondaries accounted for ~$72bn —almost half of the $152bn global secondary market—marking a 50% y/y acceleration (WSJ). In the first half of 2025 alone, sponsors exited nearly $41bn through continuation deals, representing 19% of PE exits—a 60% y/y increase (FT). With the majority of top private equity firms now deploying these vehicles and money managers like Neuberger Berman raising multi-billion dedicated funds (WSJ), continuation funds have become a viable exit strategy in response to difficult IPO and M&A markets.

The implications for secondary share marketplaces like our SecondMarket could be significant. As continuation funds offer LP liquidity through structured GP-led deals, buyers may purchase stakes directly from sponsors. A continued shift toward GP-led recapitalizations may push trading activity into more structured vehicles (FT).

Looking forward, continuation funds could transform the secondary landscape into a two-tiered model: larger, GP-managed continuation deals where LPs roll or new investors buy directly via structured transactions, and a more public-like marketplace for assets still trading via open platforms. At NPM we are responding to the continuation fund trend by continuing to offer transparency enhancements on our SecondMarket platform, as well as by participating in secondary syndication partnerships.

BIGGEST MOVERS AND TOPICAL NAMES

Based on our proprietary Tape D® data, the best performers of the large cap names in the private market thus far in 2025 have been x.AI (+152% estimated share price performance), OpenAI (+118%) and Anduril Industries (+117%).​​​​

RECENT EVENTS

• Tesla shares are down 8% post missing earnings and warning of “difficult” quarters ahead on Wednesday. (7/23; Bloomberg)
• Alphabet beat earnings by 7% on strong cloud and search results. (7/23; Bloomberg)

NOTABLE CAPITAL RAISES

• Anthropic is considering raising capital at a $100bn valuation. (7/17; Bloomberg)
• Coding startup Lovable has raised $200mm at a $1.8bn valuation. (7/17; StrictlyVC)

NOTABLE EXITS

• Design software company Figma is seeking to raise ~$1bn through an IPO at a $16bn valuation. (7/24; Bloomberg)
• Digital asset trading firm Bullish, backed by Peter Thiel, has filed to go public (7/23; StrictlyVC)
• Heartflow, a company that generates 3D heart models, filed to go public. (7/17; Reuters)